The Coming Wave

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century’s Greatest Dilemma by Mustafa Suleyman “Mustafa Suleyman” examines the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI): the good, the bad and the scary in realistic terms. Co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI and cofounder of DeepMind, Mustafa Suleyman takes the readers on a ride to the future of AI and its implications. This thought-provoking 500-page book includes fourteen chapters broken out by the following four parts: I. Homo Technologicus, II. The Next Wave, III. States of Failure, and IV. Through the Wave. Positives: 1. Well-researched an insightful book. Suleyman has the expertise and experience to write such a book. 2. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a fascinating topic, specifically whether containment is possible. 3. The book flows very well and it’s accessible. The reader is not expected to have expertise in the area to understand it. 4. Clearly defines the key topic of the book, the wave. “So, what is a wave? Put simply, a wave is a set of technologies coming together around the same time, powered by one or several new general-purpose technologies with profound societal implications.” 5. Goes over the history of technological waves. “One major study pegged the number of general-purpose technologies that have emerged over the entire span of human history at just twenty-four, naming inventions ranging from farming, the factory system, the development of materials like iron and bronze, through to printing presses, electricity, and of course the internet. There aren’t many of them, but they matter; it’s why in the popular imagination we still use terms like the Bronze Age and the Age of Sail.” 6. Defines the most important topic in the book, containment. “Containment is the overarching ability to control, limit, and, if need be, close down technologies at any stage of their development or deployment.” “Technical containment refers to what happens in a lab or an R&D facility. In AI, for example, it means air gaps, sandboxes, simulations, off switches, hard built-in safety and security measures—protocols for verifying the safety or integrity or uncompromised nature of a system and taking it offline if needed.” 7. The two technologies threatening to surpass our own intelligence. “The coming wave of technology is built primarily on two general-purpose technologies capable of operating at the grandest and most granular levels alike: artificial intelligence and synthetic biology.” 8. Describes breakthroughs in AI. “The breakthrough moment took nearly half a century, finally arriving in 2012 in the form of a system called AlexNet. AlexNet was powered by the resurgence of an old technique that has now become fundamental to AI, one that has supercharged the field and was integral to us at DeepMind: deep learning.” 9. Interesting observations and predictions. “In the words of an eminent computer scientist, “It seems totally obvious to me that of course all programs in the future will ultimately be written by AIs, with humans relegated to, at best, a supervisory role.” 10. The often-used term Singularity defined. “Over the last decade, intellectual and political elites in tech circles became absorbed by the idea that a recursively self-improving AI would lead to an “intelligence explosion” known as the Singularity.” 11. Examines synthetic biology. “Companies such as DNA Script are commercializing DNA printers that train and adapt enzymes to build de novo, or completely new, molecules. This capability has given rise to the new field of synthetic biology—the ability to read, edit, and now write the code of life.” 12. Looks at other transformative technologies that are part of the wider wave. “Amazon’s “first fully autonomous mobile robot,” called Proteus, can buzz around warehouses in great fleets, picking up parcels. Equipped with “advanced safety, perception, and navigation technology,” it can do this comfortably alongside humans. Amazon’s Sparrow is the first that can “detect, select, and handle individual products in [its] inventory.”” 13. Describes the quest for quantum supremacy. “In 2019, Google announced that it had reached “quantum supremacy.” Researchers had built a quantum computer, one using the peculiar properties of the subatomic world.” 14. Describes the four features that define the coming wave. “The coming wave is, however, characterized by a set of four intrinsic features compounding the problem of containment. First among them is the primary lesson of this section: hugely asymmetric impact. You don’t need to hit like with like, mass with mass; instead, new technologies create previously unthinkable vulnerabilities and pressure points against seemingly dominant powers.” 15. Explores containment issues. “However, any discussion of containment has to acknowledge that if or when AGI-like technologies do emerge, they will present containment problems beyond anything else we’ve ever encountered. Humans dominate our environment because of our intelligence. A more intelligent entity could, it follows, dominate us.” 16. The race for AI supremacy between China and the U.S. “China is already ahead of the United States in green energy, 5G, and AI and is on a trajectory to overtake it in quantum and biotech in the next few years. The Pentagon’s first chief software officer resigned in protest in 2021 because he was so dismayed by the situation. “We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion,” he told the Financial Times.” 17. Statements that resonate. “Science has to be converted into useful and desirable products for it to truly spread far and wide. Put simply: most technology is made to earn money.” 18. Examines the implications of this coming wave and democracy. “A meta-analysis published in the journal Nature reviewed the results of nearly five hundred studies, concluding there is a clear correlation between growing use of digital media and rising distrust in politics, populist movements, hate, and polarization.” 19. Cyber threats examined. “Today’s cyberattacks are not the real threat; they are the canary in the coal mine of a new age of vulnerability and instability, degrading the nation-state’s role as the sole arbiter of security.” 20. The dangers of highest of high tech in the hands of a few. “This raises the prospect of totalitarianism to a new plane. It won’t happen everywhere, and not all at once. But if AI, biotech, quantum, robotics, and the rest of it are centralized in the hands of a repressive state, the resulting entity would be palpably different from any yet seen.” 21. Describes varieties of catastrophe. “AI is both valuable and dangerous precisely because it’s an extension of our best and worst selves.” 22. Describes keys to containment. “Deft regulation, balancing the need to make progress alongside sensible safety constraints, on national and supranational levels, spanning everything from tech giants and militaries to small university research groups and start-ups, tied up in a comprehensive, enforceable framework.” 23. Defines the key problem of the twenty-first century. “The central problem for humanity in the twenty-first century is how we can nurture sufficient legitimate political power and wisdom, adequate technical mastery, and robust norms to constrain technologies to ensure they continue to do far more good than harm.” 24. Lists the ten steps to containment. “There’s a clear must-do here: encourage, incentivize, and directly fund much more work in this area. It’s time for an Apollo program on AI safety and biosafety.” 25. Notes and a link to the bibliography provided. Negatives: 1. If you have watched Suleyman’s YouTube Videos there is very little new here. 2. Emphasis of speculation over technical details. I wanted more details; if the purpose is to keep the book accessible such details can be included in an appendix. 3. Redundancy. 4. Lack visual supplementary material: charts, diagrams, and sketches to complement the narrative. 5. Lacks a formal bibliography. In summary, this is an important topic a plea of sorts to global leadership and subject matter experts to watch this issue carefully and to take the proper precautions to contain the worst of AI’s potential. Suleyman makes clear that AI has potential for much good but also to catastrophe if humanity loses containment. The Coming Wave of AI and synthetic biology creates immense challenges for humanity, are we ready for it? An excellent, provocative book. I highly recommend it! Further suggestions: “Superintelligence” by Nick Bostrom, “The Age of AI” by Matt Ridley, “AGI: Age of Superintelligence” by Richard A. Mann,“The Singularity Is Near” and “How to Create a Mind” by Ray Kurzweil, “Our Final Invention” by James Barrat, “Surviving AI” by Calum, “ Chace, “When Computers Can Think” by Anthony Berglas, “What to Think About Machines That Think” edited by John Brockman, and “Rise of the Robots” by Martin Ford.

We’re all a part of the AI wave, but since our personal view is limited to the AI technology we can access directly, such as Microsoft’s Co-Pilot, we don’t see how transformative this wave will be. Reading this book will broaden your understanding of how AI may benefit humanity and how it may, if not contained, erode humanity. Thoroughly researched, (there are 29 pages of notes), it is an avalanche of information. I found myself understanding the information presented, but not able to retain the many key points. This is a book where you’ll want to take notes as you read it. It would be helpful if there was a bullet-point list of the key points at the end of each chapter. The book would also benefit from some serious editing. Some sections read like a stream of consciousness. Points are repeated several times, with unnecessary detail and words. Ironically, an AI editor could have been used to reduce the book length by 20% and without reducing its value. At least that is my purely human estimate. All in all however, this is a book you should read, just so you’re more aware of the wave we’re in.

In "The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century’s Greatest Dilemma," Mustafa Suleyman delivers a compelling narrative that resonates deeply with those inclined towards future thinking. The book is not just a read; it's an intellectual journey through the impending transformations in our world. Suleyman masterfully outlines a near future where AI isn’t just a tool but a ubiquitous companion, redefining our lives, businesses, and governance. The advent of DNA printers, quantum computers, and autonomous weapons paints a picture of a world teetering on the brink of profound change. This isn't science fiction; it's a meticulously researched forecast of our near future. The author doesn’t shy away from the monumental challenges ahead. He warns of the existential dilemma posed by these advancements: on one side, unprecedented prosperity and on the other, the risk of catastrophic harms and invasive surveillance. The core of Suleyman's argument revolves around the 'containment problem' - the Herculean task of controlling such powerful technologies. What makes Suleyman's work stand out is his ability to draw parallels with historical inventions and their unintended consequences. He invokes the stories of Edison, Nobel, and Gutenberg to illustrate that the impact of technology often diverges wildly from its intended purpose. This historical perspective enriches the book, grounding futuristic concepts in familiar narratives. The book's greatest strength lies in its balanced examination of emerging technologies. Suleyman doesn’t just celebrate the promise of AI and synthetic biology; he soberly evaluates their potential perils. This balanced approach makes "The Coming Wave" a must-read for decision-makers and leaders. Suleyman’s call for immediate attention to the containment of these technologies is both timely and urgent. He argues for a multi-faceted strategy encompassing regulation, technical safety, new governance models, and transparency. This is not just about managing technology; it's about preserving our societal values and structures in the face of transformative change. The author's expertise shines through in his ability to distill complex concepts into accessible insights. His treatment of AI and synthetic biology is particularly noteworthy, making these daunting fields approachable for the lay reader. Overall, "The Coming Wave" is more than just a book; it's a roadmap for navigating the technological transformations of the 21st century. It's a work that demands not just reading but referencing, especially for those deeply immersed in AI and related fields. Suleyman's book is a clarion call to those poised to shape our future: understand these technologies, contain their risks, and harness their potential for the greater good. A highly recommended read for anyone seeking to grasp the full spectrum of AI's implications in our lives.

While any book of this type will involve some speculation (because it is mostly about the future), the manner in which an author goes about this can make a big difference. First it's worth stating that the author is approaching this topic from a position of knowledge, having founded DeepMind and worked directly on some of the biggest AI problems of the last decade (AlphaGo, etc). So he's not some media pundit or average Joe warning us that the sky is falling. As much as anyone directly involved in the AI safety debate, we can say that the author has direct knowledge of the industry and some of the technologies involved. That being said, Suleyman tends to jump to conclusions early on, following a formula of "this technology is very powerful, that technology is very disruptive, sometimes technologies mix, magnifying their disruptive effects on society, therefore bad things are going to happen." This on its own is enough to subtract one star, but the problem is compounded by the fact that his descriptions of bad outcomes are typically vague, and there's little in the way of explaining exactly how and why these things will come to pass. None of this is to say that I disagree with the author's concerns; some of the things he worries about do seem plausible, but part of the mission is to convince the reader that the threats are more real than perceived. Without the how and why this is a difficult task. There are some interesting anecdotes about specific AI technologies and how they developed. These are worth reading in their own right — even if it's not obvious why some combination of those technologies (or what they become 5-10 years from now) will lead society to a dangerous place. There's also historical context provided early on, where we learn how technological waves have affected society in the past, such as with the Industrial Revolution. One gets the sense this is where the author's belief in the inevitability of the coming wave originates — that technological waves are an inherent part of human society, and because we're seeing unprecedented new technologies (GPT4, self-driving cars, etc.), we must therefore be at the start of a new wave, one that in his mind, will overwhelm society if we don't handle the containment problem in specific ways. One final issue I had with the book is the manner in which the editor chose to integrate the end notes. While there are some entries signifying where the author got his information, none of the actual text is numbered. Meaning you have to work backwards from the end notes instead of referencing a number in the text first, then going to the end notes to read about the source. This is awkward at best and frustrating at worst. So that factor, combined with the hows and whys being conspicuously absent in some areas, I subtracted a second star. Despite the book's flaws, the author's writing style is engaging and this work does have some worthwhile ideas that policymakers, business leaders, and citizens should contemplate and discuss, especially the 10 methods or approaches to containment discussed at the end of the book. There is the potential for real disruption at a societal level with some of these technologies and so, like climate change, we need to take it seriously as AI becomes more commonplace.

This book is an amazing read with a narrative that moves in a logical and thoughtful progression. The author’s expertise in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is on vivid display. He has clearly given a great deal of thought to both the benefits and hazards AI. For a topic that can be both complex and cluttered with technical jargon, the author writes in a style that is easily understood by non-technical readers. Although I bought this book for a better understanding of just AI, the author outlined the much larger technical wave that is quickly approaching. This includes advances in biotechnology. In order to make specific points, the author uses historical examples of previous technological waves, such as the inventions of the mechanical loom and the steam engine. The loom story is especially interesting in that it describes acts of terrorism by the Luddites who tried to stop this wave and preserve their jobs. The author is able to describe the ways in which these new technologies can have global implications. Unlike nuclear weapons, which are expensive and hard to build, new technologies are inexpensive and available to everyone. Although the author highlights the many hazards of AI, he also offers some reasonable solutions to both mitigate the risk and preserve its benefits. These solutions focus on areas such as building in safety, conducting audits, and being transparent. The author describes how “safety” is baked into the culture of aviation. Safety is paramount as no one wants to see their aircraft involved in tragic or fatal accidents. A culture of “safety” now needs to be nurtured and embraced by the AI community. Whether the reader is someone involved in AI or just curious, this book will certainly open their eyes and cause them to think about the future.

A thoughtful overview of the impact of genAI and other technologies. I enjoyed how Suleyman takes a long-term perspective and isn't afraid to point out the issues AI heralds. He's not pulling punches.

Great book, great insights from one of the original inventors of AI who actually narrates this book personally. Book is divided into thoughtful chapters and although a little depressing (I think to be on point about how serious we need to be to reign in the power of AI) he brings up 10 solutions to keep in mind (so to speak) to control/guide the coming wave. I really enjoyed this audiobook and with the author’s evidence to history throughout the ages, it’s a must-know topic for everyone in this new coming age!

A huge doom and gloom senario. The human race has been through far worse than AI will ever cause. It's hard to say who really wants to control who. It's a great idealistic dream, but control of AI will never happen for the controllers that want to regulate it. It will never be controlled. It seems that this book is trying to establish that AI control is possible...Lol... Human behavior will never allow control. Way to narrow in scope in regard to people behavior and day to day human existence. A lot of personal and group lofty human self importance to push voodoo and magic and fear...... The old doom and gloom fear game is a old as the first humans in existence. Another nuclear winter threat. Society will find that AI will find it's place like every other new idea. It is not that important just another thing for what group of humans are going to gain more power and control over another group of humans. Is it necessary ? Of course, who will control the world ? Yes there is no doubt it will destroy lives. I recommend take it easy kick back and enjoy the ride. It's going to be fun to watch.

Everyone this is a must read. Everything and anything about AI.

The beginning is genuinely engaging, with sharp insights and fascinating comparisons that make you stop and think. Unfortunately, the book quickly gets lost in endless repetitions. The same points are made over and over again. Tiring and boring. Too often it slips into a self-congratulatory tone, and at times feels hypocritical: Suleyman criticizes the system, but he is also very much part of it. I lack concrete suggestions at the end. A book with a brilliant opening that could have been much stronger if it had been more concise and less self-indulgent.

This is a book that gives a lot to think about. It is very well structured, a history of human technical revolutions with possible explanations and phases with hint on what we can expect from the revolution caused by AI. Very well informed author.

I don’t know what is going on with ordering books lately. They are coming dirty and scratched… this came with bird waste on it and it was not clean at all I had to through away the cover…

For someone not involved in the world of AI, the book was very enlightening.